原油价格上涨，但是这会持续多久呢？

    So, what is driving the price of crude oil higher? The black gold has rallied over 9% since the start of July due to both an encouraging economic growth and employment news in the United States combined with the ongoing geopolitical fears in Egypt and the effects this could have on supply.
    那么，推动原油价格走高的原因是什么呢？自7月来因令人鼓舞的经济增长和美国就业报告，同时市场对埃及政治局势以及其对原油供应影响一直的担忧都使原油价格上涨超过9%。

    Crude oil is the most volatile of all the commodities and is particuarly prone to huge movements due to the slightest disruption in supply. We have two different types of demand here; one is a healthy, economically driven supply issue whereas the other is driven by fear and speculation.
    原油是所有商品中最不稳定的，特别是原油供应轻微的中断都会使原油大幅运动。这里我们有两种不同的原油需求，一个是健康的，由经济驱动供应，另一种是由市场的担心和猜测造成的。

    The health of an economy, especially in the US, can be derived from the price of crude oil. It is considered a highly sensitive barometer of the strength of the US economy. In fact the US, as an oil guzzling monster, depends so heavily on oil for such a magnitude of reasons that any move in inventories can reflect in the price very quickly.
    一个经济体的健康状况是可以透过原油的价格反映的，特别是美国。它被认为是对美国经济实力反应特别敏感的晴雨表。事实上，美国作为原油大消费国，很大程度上会依赖原油，因为原油库存的任何变动都会迅速在价格上反应出来。

     A major indicator for the state of US oil inventories and the economy is the DOE (Department of Energy) crude oil inventory report released every Wednesday. The crude oil price has been notably influenced by this data release throughout the last three weeks as we have seen big draw downs in oil inventories. Low oil inventories and/or a big draw down in those inventories (from week to week) is generally economically positive. It means you have strong industrial production with factories and utilities both using energy, which has a significant effect on  the market.
     体现美国原油库存状况和经济的一个重要指标是DOE（美国能源部）每周三公布的原油库存报告。在过去三周里原油价格受到这一数据公布很大的影响，因为原油库存大幅降低。低的原油库存货或者是库存大幅减少（每周对比）通常表明经济健康。它意味着工业生产与工厂以及使用能源的公用事业很强劲，从而对市场产生很大影响。

     Another major reason cited for the rally in oil was the potential disruption to the Suez canal supply line due to the political uncertainty in Egypt. The Suez canal and the Suez-Mediterranean pipeline combined are responsible for 2.4 million barrels of oil a day, around 33% of the global output. The threat of another military coup on the horizon not only compounds these supply fears but also drives prices upwards. However, in this situation it could be argued that any deficit caused by disruption could be covered easily by Saudi Arabia as it has a 6 million barrel a day surplus. 
     另一个会令原油价格上涨的原因是由于埃及政治不稳定造成苏伊士运河供给线上原油供应可能中断。苏伊士运河和苏伊士运河地中海管道联合会每天负责240万桶原油，约为全世界原油供应的33%。可能发生的军事政变不仅造成市场对原油供应的担忧，而且也直接导致价格上涨。然而，在这种情况下，人们可能会认为原油供应中断造成的任何赤字可能会轻易被沙特阿拉伯每天6百万桶盈余给抵消。

     So, if demand can be covered why does the price move yet higher? Speculators are a major reason why oil prices move the way they do. A speculator is not looking to take delivery of a barrel of oil, nor does he need it to be refined to make plastic chairs for delivery to a client. The speculator is looking to make money from short or medium price fluctuations caused by the fundamental changes in the supply and demand curve.
     因此，如果需求可以被满足的话，为什么价格还是会走高？投机者是一个主要原因，原油跟随他们的操作运动。一个投机者不是想要一桶原油，也不需要用提炼原油制造塑料椅子卖给客户。投机者需要的是从供需曲线的根本性变化造成的价格短期或中期波动中盈利。

     Whether it is a thriving economy or a supply line threat, the fact that these situations are so unpredictable means that pricing a commodity, heavily dependant on energy creation, is incredibly hard. Indeed this market is not for the faint hearted but whether you are an oil producer looking to hedge your exposure, an oil consumer looking to lock in a price or a speculator looking to take advantage of price swings, One Financial Markets can faciliate all your trading needs.
     不管它是繁荣的经济或供给线受到威胁，这些情况是不可预测的，这意味着商品定价很大程度上依赖能源创造，而这是相当难的。事实上，这个市场并不适合胆小的人，但不管是你是一个想要对冲风险的石油生产商，或是想锁定价格的石油消费者，亦或是想利用价格波动的投机者，欧福市场可以满足您所有交易需求。