黄金走势分析

GOLDLYTICS
      Gold has been nicely range bound for the last 9 days finding support at 1313.00 and resistance just under the 1350.00 level. The FOMC rate decision tonight will see rates still stuck at 0.25% however it is the rhetoric after which the market will be eager to hear. Tapering or continuation of asset buy backs either or will have a big effect on the market.
     Gold is used as an inflation hedge and also as cover if the world implodes. If we hear Bernanke is happy to continue to pump money into the US economy then Gold could rally based on inflationary concerns. If he says we start tapering in September, it could sell off first on the basis that the economy is doing well enough to warrant the slowing down but then burst north as investors look to protect their portfolios against Bernanke being wrong. This Fridays Nonfarm payroll will be enormous and a healthy number could provide the FED with the confidence to start up the tapering machine.
    On a technical perspective, gold has recovered 61.80% of its sell off in early June. The next leg up is a full 100% retracement and I have indicated in blue that we have been range bound previously before the resistance is effectively breached and we step up. This pattern has formed again and there is potential for a move north.

黄金分析
       在过去9天里黄金呈区间震荡态势，支撑位在1313.00水平，阻力位在1350.00水平。美国联邦公开市场委员会今晚仍会决定将利率停留在0.25%，然而这也是市场渴望听到的消息。削减或维持资产购买要么支撑市场，要么对市场产生重大影响。
      黄金是通胀对冲工具。如果我们听到伯南克很乐意继续为美国经济注入资金，黄金可能基于通胀担忧而反弹。如果他说我们9月份开始逐渐减少资产购买，黄金可能第一时间遭到抛售，因为经济状况良好到足以减缓购买计划，但因投资者寻求保护他们的资产组合而不认为伯南克是错误的，因此黄金价格会骤然增长。这周五如果非农就业是巨大的和健康的，这可能为美联储启动削减措施提供信心。
      从技术角度来看，黄金已经从6月初的抛售恢复了61.80%。下一段是一个完整的100%回调，我已用蓝色标注出来，在阻力位被有效突破，我们进入市场前，市场一直在之前的窄幅范围内波动。这种模式已再次形成，市场呈上涨趋势。