原油分析

CRUDELYTICS
   The crude trade currently is all about Syria and the contagion effect it could have on the region. A civil war has been raging in this country for over 2 years and has had little to no effect on the energy market. With the sudden use of chemical weapons and the risk of combined operations air strikes it sets alarm bells ringing.
   The market on hearing that the US was “ready to strike “moved $6 in a 24 hour period as speculators bought on rumour. The facts soon became apparent as the UK parliament voted NO to intervention and the US looked to follow suit and ask Congress for confirmation. Crude sold off $4 in another 24 hour period.
    Crude had already broken into a new range and was comfortably trading in a $5 sideways pattern 102.50 to 107.50 until we had the potential for military intervention. Syria does not hold a lot of oil and therefore the supply shortage that might come from air strikes will not cause severe disruptions, it is the domino effect that is causing the rally in crude. The “what if scenario” is the driver.
   Traders keep your eyes firmly on the news wires and the next steps. Nothing can be done in the US until next week and there will be a lot of chat between then and now. We might see crude fall back to the 105.50 level as speculators take profits before we get a consensus on military action.

原油分析
    原油贸易目前受叙利亚局势及其对中东地区可能的感染效应影响。叙利亚国内战争已经持续2年多，而这并未影响能源市场。而叙利亚突然使用化学武器，美国可能联合对其空中作战拉响警报。
    在谣传美国24小时内“准备军事打击”后，投机者买入原油，原油上涨6美元。事实很快将明了，因为英国议会投票反对干预，而美国可能会效仿，美国的军事打击将寻求国会同意。在随后24小时里原油下跌4美元。
    原油价格已经突破，形成新的区间范围，在美国军事干预叙利亚的可能出现后，原油在102.50到107.50的5美元差价内波动。叙利亚并未有大量原油供应，因此空袭引起的原油供应短缺不会造成很大的破坏，原油价格反弹是由多米诺骨牌效应引起的。“如果场景”是原油上涨的动力。
    交易者密切关注新闻通讯和接下来的措施。而美国在下周前不会采取任何措施，现在市场人很多人都在讨论未来和现在的局势。我们可以看到因投机者在军事行动达成共识前，获利兑现，原油回落到105.50。