道指上扬，非农将对市场和美联储造成影响

DOWLYTICS
     The DOW broke out of its tight range yesterday as investors were encouraged by a positive ISM figure and a healthy ADP figure prior to today’s Nonfarm payroll release.
      Today is incredibly important as a positive figure could provide an indication to when Bernanke and the FED might start tapering. If we get a negative figure or slightly off the survey of 185k then we could see major repercussions.
      The FED is to continue its QE programme until it sees an improvement in the jobs market, so a negative number today could be a positive for the market as a whole as it will continue to have monetary support. I think QE will eventually be the downfall of the market as real people aren’t getting the cheap money. I think we are all aware that lending to SME’s (Small and Medium Enterprises) is lacking somewhat and the responsibility for this lies firmly at the banks doorstep.  Until we can get small and medium businesses to grow there will never be any real concrete recovery.
       The motor city went bankrupt last month and I think there is a real chance a few other cities might run out gas soon also. The jobs number might go up today but in the long run we need to monitor the real economy not one fabricated by paper.

       道琼斯指数昨天突破了狭窄的区间，积极的ISM制造业指数，以及ADP就业数据，极大地鼓舞了交易者。
       今天非常重要，良好的数据可能意味着伯南克和美联储紧缩的开始。如果我们得到一个消极的数据，或者低于18.5万的预期，那么我们也可以看到巨大的反响。
       美联储的量化宽松会持续到劳动力市场有所改善，所以今天一个负面的数据可能为市场带来积极的影响，因为市场会继续得到货币支持。我认为量化宽松对市场不利，因为人们并未得到这些廉价的货币。我们清楚地知道，中小企业贷款相对匮乏，此事的责任在于银行的门槛。除非中小企业有所发展，否则不会有真正的复苏。
       汽车城（底特律）上月已经破产，其他某些城市可能也支撑不了多久。今天的就业数据可能上升，但是长期来看，我们需要关注实体经济，而不是一纸数据。