英镑等待央行会议纪要给予前瞻性指引

STERLYTICS
     Sterling has flattened out after last Wednesdays 300 pip move as investors wait for the Bank of England Monetary policy committee minutes. What we will see is confirmation of the introduction of forward guidance and the BOE intention to keep benchmark rates at 0.5% until employment falls to 7%. We are currently at 7.8%.
    So where do we go from here? GBPUSD has fallen 5% since the start of the year and with the QE tap still turned on I can’t really see sterling going much higher in the foreseeable future. The BOE backing and forward guidance might help the equity and housing markets but it is also an indication that the UK economy is still very sluggish and could be seen as a weakness for the pound.
    If we look at the technical’s I see we have broken 38.20% retracement levels from the low on Wednesday and I see the 50% retracement at 1.5388 not far off. The push down could come after a spike back to 1.5500 plus levels but with thin markets anything can happen.

英镑分析
      因投资者等待英国央行货币政策的会议纪要公布，英镑持平，此前上周三英镑上涨30个点。我们等待的是英国能够给出前瞻性指引，同时英国央行计划在失业率降至7%前保持利率在0.5%。目前失业率在7.8%。
      所以在这之前我们应该如何应对？自年初来英镑对美元下跌5%，同时由于QE削减还不确定，在可预见的未来我认为英镑不会上涨太多。英国央行支撑性的指导可能帮助股市和房屋市场，但也可能表明英国经济仍然很萧条，英镑疲软也表明这一点。
     从技术性因素看，英镑已从周三低点打破38.20%回撤水平，我看到英镑价格离1.5388的50%回撤位不远了。在大幅反弹至1.5500 水平后，英镑价格应该会下跌，但在这一交易停滞的市场任何事情都有可能发生。