美元分析

DOLLARLYTICS 
    The Dollar Index sold off 1% yesterday as US equities added a second day of selling moving 2.2% to the downside. The dollar sell off across the board looked like a program trade.  We initially saw riskier asset classes like the EURO and GBP sell off on the economic data. Looking at the data it was largely unwarranted. There was much of nothing released Jobless claims slightly better, so indicating a healthier economy, better for dollars better for equities. Philadelphia Fed, worse than expected, dollar safe haven buying, equities sell off.  Perhaps you can warrant a small dollar rally.
    The reversal in the dollar came across the board and EURO and GBP all took back loses and added gains to their day. If we look at the TIC Flow data which shows capital in and outflows of foreign investment in the US economy, $66.9B left the US economy in June. Whether it long term or short term speculative we had a strategic shift in the market. The market believes tapering is coming and foreign investment is pulling its dollar denominated investments and sticking it in the bank.
     When we look at dollar moves we have to look at all our indicators of why it’s moving before we think about executing a trade. All trading plans should have several series of indicators before we click that button. In the case of the dollar trade yesterday we can take 3 indicators that meant the initial dollar bid was wrong.
     Indicator 1: Equities markets had fallen over 2% in as many days; it has been in a downtrend since the 4th of August. Money is being taken out of equities it needs to go somewhere else
     Indicator 2: TIC FLOW data showed $66.9B of foreign investment flowed out of the US economy. There needs to be some sort of repatriation of funds
     Indicator 3: Foreign investor who held US equities need to convert their dollars in to EURO or GBP hence a dollar sell off and a rally in EURO and GBP.
TRADE ON

美元分析
      因美国股票连续第二天下跌，跌幅达2.2%，美元指数下跌1%。美元全盘下跌。我们最初看到风险较大的资产如欧元和英镑因经济数据被抛售。而数据大部分是毫无保证的。美国初请失业金人数小幅好转，表明经济更加健康，有利于美元和股票，而费城联储数据差于预期，安全避风港的美元购买减少，股票被抛售，所以总体数据几乎对市场没影响。也许你可以认为美元会小幅上涨。
     今天美元走势全盘逆转，欧元和英镑削减跌幅，开始上涨。如果我们看显示美国经济中流入和流出的外国投资资金的TIC流量数据，我们会发现6月美国经济中有6690万资金流出。无论是进行长期投资或是短期投资，我们都可以看到市场有战略性的转变。市场相信削减措施将开始，外国投资者撤出美元计价的投资，将资金存入银行。
     当我们看美元走势时，我们不得不看看所有指示美元移动的因素，然后再考虑进行交易。在确认交易前，所有的交易计划都应该有一些指示性信息。在昨天的美元交易中我们考虑到3个经济指标，这些指标表明最初买进美元是错误的。
经济指标1：股票市场数天内下跌超过2%，自8月4日来呈下降趋势。股市内资金被取出转而投入其他地方。
经济指标2：TIC流动数据显示美国经济内有6690万国内投资资金流出。一些资金调回本国。
经济指标3：持有美国股票的外国投资者需要将美元兑换成欧元和英镑，因此美元被抛售，欧元和英镑上涨。